После избрания Владимира Зеленского президентом в апреле 2019 года, не в последнюю очередь странно представлять, как он управляет страной. Характерные инициативы, начатые после громкой победы Зеленского, включают его платформу LIFT, которая позволяет гражданам присылать идеи и проекты, подавать документы на работу в правительство и местные власти — и даже присоединяться к его команде. В эту новую эру неструктурированные «электронные жесты» является неотъемлемой частью подхода Зеленского к кампаниям и управлению: в июне он попросил своих последователей в Facebook выбрать нового губернатора Львова из списка трех. Ничего подобного страна не видела раньше. Детали читайте на yes-vinnytsia.
Украинцы и наблюдатели за Украиной все еще поглощают реальность, что комик стал главой государства — тот, кто получил беспрецедентные 73% голосов на президентских выборах, выиграв абсолютное большинство на внеочередных парламентских опросах. Как и многие популисты, Зеленский пришел к власти, демонизируя своего предшественника. Его успехи дают ему право на сравнение с Дональдом Трампом и «Республикой эн-Марке» Эммануэля Макрона! Некоторые даже сравнили партию «Слуга народа» с большевиками.
Зеленский бросает вызов легким аналогиям: это специфически украинское явление. В этой статье рассматриваются истоки и значение метеоричного подъема Зеленского, рассматриваются его перспективы выхода за пределы украинской политики.
Готов к сбросу
Украинские президенты всегда теряют власть в конце своего первого срока — и предшественник Зеленского Петр Порошенко не стал исключением. Зеленский является шестым президентом Украины с момента провозглашения независимости в 1991 году. Лишь один из них победил дважды — Леонид Кучма в 1999 году — но он не сделал этого свободными и честными средствами. Поддержка каждого президента Украины уменьшалась одинаковыми темпами в течение их срока.
Но настроение вокруг президентских выборов прошлого года предвещало изменения даже сильнее, чем на предыдущих опросах. Семьдесят процентов украинцев считали, что страна движется в неправильном направлении, и только 16% думали обратное. Отношение к политическим институтам было крайне негативным, что дало Порошенко рейтинг доверия в минус 54%. Доверие к правительству было еще ниже — минус 63% — и достигло минус 72% для Верховной Рады Украины.
Внутренние враги
Опросы также показали, что население считает коррупцию широко распространенной. Но после того как администрация Порошенко пообещала принять меры по коррупции, СМИ начали освещать этот вопрос всесторонне. Это привело к ощущению нестабильного прогресса на национальном уровне. По словам ведущего социолога Ирины Бекешкиной, «люди считают, что в обществе в целом больше коррупции, чем они сообщают в своей повседневной жизни».
Действительно, сравнивая показатели КМИС «Восприятие индивидуального благополучия» и «Восприятие общественного благополучия» показало, что первые регулярно превосходили последние: люди чувствовали, что их личное здоровье и материальное положение улучшились за последние несколько лет. Но в обществе в целом дела ухудшились.
Объективно говоря, экономика улучшается. После двух серьезных спадов в 2008-2009 и 2014-2015 годах украинская экономика снова начала расти с 2016 года. В 2018 году ВВП вырос на 3,3%. Но все же было преимущественное ощущение того, что Украина идет вниз, и коррупция и некомпетентность политиков в основном отвечают за это. Украинцы интерпретировали события последних пяти лет через мета-нарратив разочарования и измены; они, безусловно, были готовы к изменению подхода.
Отношение к соседям
Широкий региональный и международный контекст также является жизненно важным для понимания того, как Украина развилась после революции Майдана. Негативное отношение к России достигло 66% в 2014-2015 годах, при этом положительное отношение было соответственно низким — 26%. Опросы показывают, что положительное отношение, однако, возобновилось до 37% в 2017 году; до 48% в 2018 году; а затем до 57% в 2019 году. Кстати, в России отношение не изменилось, и стабильное отрицательное отношение к Украине составляет 55%, что свидетельствует о влиянии государственной пропаганды.
Этот постепенный переход вошел в политику. Как и в Грузии, Украина наблюдала возрождение откровенно пророссийской политики как значительного маргинального, но не основного варианта. Это маскируется как «промирская» политика и разделяет общее пренебрежение к политике эпохи Порошенко. Ранее пророссийские силы в Украине — Виктор Янукович и Партия регионов — побеждали на выборах, даже не всегда честно. Но преемник Партии регионов, Оппозиционный блок набрал лишь 9,4% на парламентских выборах 2014 года. Новый альянс «Оппозиционная платформа — За жизнь» проводил кампанию за «мир» и набрал 13,1% голосов в 2019 году.
Украинский путь?
Действительно, аннексия Крыма, война в Донбассе и убеждения украинцев, что реакция Запада на эти события была лишь ограниченной, привели к росту поддержки НАТО, а также к росту самообеспеченности. Разочарование Будапештским меморандумом сыграло в этом значительную роль: украинцы воспринимают это соглашение о защите безопасности Украины как что-то малоценное, и они чувствуют, что несут на себе основную тяжесть войны и усилия противостоять угрозе со стороны России, несмотря на действия Запада, например, формат Нормандии.
Учитывая это, действующий президент столкнулся с тяжелой борьбой за победу на перевыборах. В 2014 году лозунг Порошенко звучал «Жить по-новому»; в 2019 году он выступил с узко националистическим призывом «Армия! Язык! Вера», без упоминания о проблемах жизни и реформах. Но как только Зеленский присоединился к гонкам, его радикальная новизна превзошла. В конце концов бывший министр Юлия Тимошенко достигла значительных результатов, как и на выборах 2014 (при этом ее доля голосов увеличилась с 12,8 до 13,4%), получив большую часть поддержки от людей пожилого возраста, а также сельских и малых городов центральной Украины.
В ее предвыборной кампании не было ничего нового, но она помогла сформулировать ключевой вопрос выборов. В этом меняющемся, сложном контексте Зеленский достиг лучшего места. На самом деле, он дебютировал в рейтинговых опросах, еще даже не сделав чего-то важного. Подобным образом, партия Зеленского «Слуга народа» начала проводить опрос на уровне 40% до того, как объявила о своей платформе или списке кандидатов. По сути, он был чистым листом, на котором избиратели могли писать свои стремления.
Сила электронной агитации
Зеленский ввел новшества больше других кандидатов. Например, его кампания была сверхсовременной, используя новейшие технологии, широко задействован характер и прямая связь, которые она пыталась установить с избирателями. Результатом стало быстрое создание новой партии, заселенной лицами вне политики. Его кампания была разработана медиа-командой Зеленского во главе с Михаилом Федоровым с агентства SMM Studio и значительно опередила своих оппонентов в использовании потенциала социальных медиа.
Зеленский был легко заметным кандидатом в Facebook, Instagram, Telegram и — с его комедийными видео и влогами — на YouTube. Однако аналитики отрицают, насколько социальные медиа помогли выиграть Зеленскому на выборах. Он был повсеместным на крупнейшем в Украине телевизионном канале 1 + 1. Канал принадлежит предполагаемому спонсору Зеленского, олигарху Игорю Коломойскому.
В любом случае, для украинских националистов, сторонников безопасности и Порошенко, Зеленский слишком виртуальный. Они считают его слишком случайным по серьезным вопросам и слишком наивным по российской угрозе. «Ошибки Петра Порошенко стоили ему второго срока. Ошибки Зеленского могут стоить нам страны», — предупреждает Наталья Попович с Украинского кризисного медиа-центра.
Президент электронного популизма?
Зеленский и «Слуга народа» теперь имеют большую власть. Президент получил очень сильный мандат на создание новой Украины, но ее очертания остаются размытыми. Он пообещал «сломать систему». Этого явно хотят украинцы, и его чрезвычайно высокая поддержка, в том числе со стороны молодых избирателей, которых он мобилизовал, привела к сравнениям с революцией Майдана 2014 года.
Сторонники Зеленского утверждают, что Украине придется найти собственный путь. С 2014 года Россия стала окончательной антимоделлю, а ЕС остается стремлением. Но государства ЕС слишком разные. И они не обязательно такие вдохновляющие, как раньше. Соседняя Польша, хотя и процветает экономически, отступает демократическим путем и больше не предлагает шаблон для постсоветских государств. Поэтому Украина сталкивается с пятилетними экспериментами, рисками неизбежными ошибками, а также с творческими вызовами старой, устаревшей формуле.
Электронная политика
Почему так много новых лиц? Содержание Зеленского для нации заключается в том, что новобранцы, частично найденные через открытую конкуренцию и проект LIFT, «не вернут неформальную политику», по словам одного аналитика. Проевропейская либеральная партия «Голос» применила подобный подход, не приняв в свои списки ни одного бывшего депутата. Было определенное количество тщательно «управляемого участия» в создании списка «Слуги народа».
Эффект этого нового подхода к заполнению политики пока еще неизвестен. Партия большинства в Верховной Раде может оставаться стабильной, поскольку большинство ее депутатов обязаны своим избранием личному бренду Зеленского. Однако он не может воспринимать их поддержку как должное. Список партии был собран в считанные недели, а ее новые депутаты имеют небольшой опыт в политике, не говоря уже о Совете или конкретной политической партии.
Более того, в Украине действует смешанная избирательная система, когда половина депутатов избирается по партийным спискам пропорциональным методом, а другая половина — из одномандатных округов (СМД). Депутатов, избранных от СМД, как правило, труднее контролировать, что со временем способствует партийной недисциплинированности.
Тем не менее, Зеленский имеет возможность сочетать форму с содержанием. Он собрал молодую команду, которая хочет оставить свой след. Новое правительство, избранное 29 августа, имеет средний возраст 39 лет. Новому премьер-министру Алексею Гончаруку было только 35 лет. Федорову, вице-премьер-министру и министру по вопросам цифровой трансформации, 28 лет.
Реформирование
Несмотря на достижения Украины в эпоху Порошенко, реформы едва начались во многих сферах, таких как службы безопасности, — как недавно было детально проанализировано. Другие были намеренно саботированы, например, судебная реформа. Зеленский определил приоритетом новый старт судебной реформы: в августе он создал комиссию для оценки всех аспектов «реформ» Порошенко в этой области. Также существует опасность того, что Зеленский будет претендовать на быстрые результаты, а не на настоящую институциональную реформу. Например, может быть соблазнительно «посадить некоторых недоброжелателей в тюрьму», в частности по борьбе с коррупцией и судебной реформы.
В парламенте Зеленский не имеет большинства в две трети для конституционной реформы — хотя, при поддержке некоторых независимых партий, возможно, можно будет принять конституционные изменения, которые требуют 300 голосов (373 депутата проголосовали за отмену собственной неприкосновенности). В любом случае, реформа судебной власти и службы безопасности будет оставаться в центре внимания украинцев, когда они будут отслеживать прогресс своего нового президента.
По церковной сфере, Зеленский встречался с Вселенским патриархом, который предоставил автокефалию новой православной церкви Украины в декабре 2018 года. Но тогда президент пообещал не вмешиваться в религиозные дела, несмотря на российское нападение на новую церковь.
Экономика
Украина имеет огромный потенциал для гораздо лучших экономических результатов. Рост ВВП достиг стабильных 3%. Инфляция находится под контролем. Национальный банк Украины имеет хорошую репутацию, а дефицит торговли и долга упал. После 2014 года правительство в значительной мере проводило реформирование государственных финансов и банковской системы. И рынки хорошо отреагировали на двойные победы Зеленского, снизив расходы Украины на займы и погашения.
Сейчас Украине нужно присоединиться к новой программе с Международным валютным фондом (МВФ). Миссия МВФ прибыла в Украину в сентябре, порождая слухи, что новая программа экономической помощи на 5 миллиардов долларов начнется уже в октябре. Если да, условия этой программы должны быть сосредоточены не в макроэкономике, а на получении результатов по ключевым реформам. При надлежащей земельной реформе Украина могла бы стать мировым лидером в сельском хозяйстве.
Победа Зеленского может отражать длительные революционные настроения в украинском обществе, но, как отмечает политолог Алексей Гаран, «параметры не изменились»: Россия все еще является агрессором — хотя Зеленский не так пристально относится к активным российским мерам против Востока Украины или государства в целом; Украине все еще нужен Запад; Запад все еще предлагает нам поддержку; а олигархическая система настолько глубоко укоренена, что некоторое время еще будет оставаться частью украинского ландшафта.
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