Після обрання Володимира Зеленського президентом у квітні 2019 року, не в останню чергу дивно уявляти, як він керує країною. Характерні ініціативи, розпочаті після гучної перемоги Зеленського, включають його платформу LIFT, яка дозволяє громадянам надсилати ідеї та проекти, подавати документи на роботу в уряд та місцеву владу – і навіть приєднуватися до його команди. У цю нову еру неструктуровані «електронні жести» є невід’ємною частиною підходу Зеленського до кампаній та управління: у червні він попросив своїх послідовників у Facebook вибрати нового губернатора Львова зі списку з трьох. Нічого подібного країна не бачила раніше. Деталі читайте на yes-vinnytsia.
Українці та спостерігачі за Україною все ще поглинають реальність того, що комік став главою держави – той, хто отримав безпрецедентні 73% голосів на президентських виборах, вигравши абсолютну більшість на позачергових парламентських опитуваннях. Як і багато популістів, Зеленський прийшов до влади, демонізуючи свого попередника. Його успіхи дають йому право на порівняння з Дональдом Трампом та «Республікою ен-Марке» Еммануеля Макрона! Деякі навіть порівняли партію «Слуга народу» з більшовиками.
Зеленський кидає виклик легким аналогіям: це специфічно українське явище. У цій статті розглядаються витоки та значення метеоричного підйому Зеленського, розглядаються його перспективи виходу за межі української політики.
Готовий до скидання
Українські президенти завжди втрачають владу наприкінці свого першого терміну – і попередник Зеленського Петро Порошенко не став винятком. Зеленський є шостим президентом України з моменту проголошення незалежності в 1991 році. Лише один із них переміг двічі – Леонід Кучма в 1999 році – але він не зробив цього вільними та чесними засобами. Підтримка кожного президента України зменшувалася однаковими темпами протягом їхнього терміну.
Але настрій навколо президентських виборів минулого року віщував зміни навіть сильніше, ніж на попередніх опитуваннях. Сімдесят відсотків українців вважали, що країна рухається в неправильному напрямку, і лише 16% думали протилежне. Ставлення до політичних інституцій було надзвичайно негативним, що дало Порошенку рейтинг довіри до мінус 54%. Довіра до уряду була ще нижчою – мінус 63% – і досягла мінус 72% для Верховної Ради України.
Внутрішні вороги
Опитування також показали, що населення вважає корупцію широко поширеною. Але після того, як адміністрація Порошенка пообіцяла вжити заходів щодо корупції, ЗМІ почали висвітлювати це питання всебічніше. Це призвело до відчуття нестабільного прогресу на національному рівні. За словами провідного соціолога Ірини Бекешкіної, «люди вважають, що в суспільстві в цілому більше корупції, ніж вони повідомляють у своєму повсякденному житті».
Дійсно, порівнюючи показники КМІС «Сприйняття індивідуального благополуччя» та «Сприйняття суспільного благополуччя» показало, що перші регулярно перевершували останні: люди відчували, що їхнє особисте здоров’я та матеріальне становище покращилися за останні кілька років. Але в суспільстві у цілому справи погіршились.
Об’єктивно кажучи, економіка покращується. Після двох серйозних спадів у 2008-2009 та 2014-2015 роках українська економіка знову почала зростати з 2016 року. У 2018 році ВВП зріс на 3,3%. Але все ж існувало переважне відчуття того, що Україна прямує вниз, і корупція та некомпетентність політиків в основному відповідають за це. Українці інтерпретували події останніх п’яти років через мета-наратив розчарування та зради; вони, безумовно, були готові до зміни підходу.
Ставлення до сусідів
Ширший регіональний та міжнародний контекст також є життєво важливим для розуміння того, як Україна розвинулася після революції Майдану. Негативне ставлення до Росії досягло 66% у 2014-2015 роках, при цьому позитивне ставлення було відповідно низьким – 26%. Опитування показують, що позитивне ставлення, однак, відновилось до 37% у 2017 році; до 48% у 2018 році; а потім до 57% у 2019 році. До речі, у Росії ставлення не змінилося, і стабільне негативне відношення до України становить 55%, що свідчить про вплив державної пропаганди.
Цей поступовий перехід увійшов у політику. Як і в Грузії, Україна спостерігала відродження відверто проросійської політики як значного маргінального, але не основного варіанту. Це маскується як «промирська» політика і поділяє загальну зневагу до політики епохи Порошенка. Раніше проросійські сили в Україні – Віктор Янукович та Партія регіонів – перемагали на виборах, навіть не завжди чесно. Але наступник Партії регіонів, Опозиційний блок, набрав лише 9,4% на парламентських виборах 2014 року. Новий альянс «Опозиційна платформа – За життя» проводив кампанію за «мир» і набрав 13,1% голосів у 2019 році.
Український шлях?
Дійсно, анексія Криму, війна на Донбасі та переконання українців, що реакція Заходу на ці події була лише обмеженою, призвели до зростання підтримки НАТО, а також до зростання самозабезпеченості. Розчарування Будапештським меморандумом зіграло в цьому значну роль: українці сприймають цю угоду про захист безпеки України як щось малоцінне, і вони відчувають, що несуть на собі основний тягар війни та зусилля протистояти загрозі з боку Росії, незважаючи на дії Заходу наприклад, формат Нормандії.
Враховуючи це, чинний президент зіткнувся з важкою боротьбою за перемогу на перевиборах. У 2014 році гасло Порошенка звучало «Жити по-новому»; у 2019 році він виступив із вузько націоналістичним закликом до «Армія! Мова! Віра!», без згадки про проблеми життя та реформи. Але як тільки Зеленський долучився до перегонів, його радикальна новизна перевершила. Зрештою колишній міністр Юлія Тимошенко досягла значних результатів, як і на виборах 2014 року (при цьому її частка голосів зросла з 12,8 до 13,4%), отримавши більшу частину підтримки від людей похилого віку, а також сільських та малих міст центральної України.
У її передвиборчій кампанії не було нічого нового, але вона допомогла сформулювати ключове питання виборів. У цьому мінливому, складному контексті Зеленський досяг найкращого місця. Насправді, він дебютував у рейтингових опитуваннях, ще навіть не зробивши чогось важливого. Подібним чином, партія Зеленського «Слуга народу» почала проводити опитування на рівні 40 %до того, як оголосила про свою платформу чи список кандидатів. По суті, він був чистим аркушем, на якому виборці могли писати свої прагнення.
Сила електронної агітації
Зеленський ввів новації більше за інших кандидатів. Наприклад, його кампанія була надсучасною, використовуючи новітні технології, широко задіяний характер та прямий зв’язок, який вона намагалася встановити з виборцями. Результатом стало швидке створення нової партії, заселеної обличчями поза політикою. Його кампанія була розроблена медіа-командою Зеленського на чолі з Михайлом Федоровим із агенції SMM Studio і значно випередила своїх опонентів у використанні потенціалу соціальних медіа.
Зеленський був легко найпомітнішим кандидатом у Facebook, Instagram, Telegram та – з його комедійними відео та влогами – на YouTube. Однак аналітики заперечують, наскільки соціальні медіа допомогли виграти Зеленському на виборах. Він був повсюдним на найбільшому в Україні телевізійному каналі 1+1. Канал належить передбачуваному спонсору Зеленського, олігарху Ігорю Коломойському.
У будь-якому випадку, для українських націоналістів, прихильників безпеки і Порошенка, Зеленський занадто віртуальний. Вони вважають його занадто випадковим щодо серйозних питань і занадто наївним щодо російської загрози. «Помилки Петра Порошенка коштували йому другого терміну. Помилки Зеленського можуть коштувати нам країни», – попереджає Наталія Попович з Українського кризового медіа-центру.
Президент електронного популізму?
Зеленський і Слуга народу тепер мають велику владу. Президент отримав надзвичайно сильний мандат на створення нової України, але її обриси залишаються розмитими. Він пообіцяв «зламати систему». Цього явно хочуть українці, і його надзвичайно висока підтримка, в тому числі з боку молодих виборців, яких він мобілізував, призвела до порівнянь з революцією Майдану 2014 року.
Прихильники Зеленського стверджують, що Україні доведеться знайти власний шлях. З 2014 року Росія стала остаточною антимоделлю, а ЄС залишається прагненням. Але держави ЄС занадто різні. І вони не обов’язково такі надихаючі, як раніше. Сусідня Польща, хоча і процвітає економічно, відступає демократичним шляхом і більше не пропонує шаблон для пострадянських держав. Тому Україна стикається з п’ятирічними експериментами, ризиками та неминучими помилками, а також із творчими викликами старій, застарілій формулі.
Електронна політика
Чому так багато нових облич? Зміст Зеленського для нації полягає в тому, що новобранці, частково знайдені через відкриту конкуренцію та проект LIFT, «не повернуть неформальну політику», за словами одного аналітика. Проєвропейська ліберальна партія «Голос» застосувала подібний підхід, не прийнявши до своїх списків жодного колишнього депутата. Була певна кількість ретельно «керованої участі» у створенні списку «Слуги народу».
Ефект цього нового підходу до заповнення політики поки ще невідомий. Партія більшості у Верховній Раді може залишатися стабільною, оскільки більшість її депутатів зобов’язані своїм обранням особистому бренду Зеленського. Проте він не може сприймати їх підтримку як належне. Список партії був зібраний за лічені тижні, а її нові депутати мають невеликий досвід у світі політики, не кажучи вже про Раду чи конкретну політичну партію.
Більше того, в Україні діє змішана виборча система, коли половина депутатів обирається із партійних списків пропорційним методом, а інша половина – з одномандатних округів (СМД). Депутатів, обраних від СМД, як правило, важче контролювати, що з часом сприяє партійній недисциплінованості.
Тим не менше, Зеленський має можливість поєднувати форму зі змістом. Він зібрав молоду команду, яка прагне залишити свій слід. Новий уряд, обраний 29 серпня, має середній вік 39 років. Новому прем’єр-міністру Олексію Гончаруку було тільки 35 років. Федорову, віце-прем’єр-міністру і міністру з питань цифрової трансформації, 28 років.
Реформування
Незважаючи на досягнення України в епоху Порошенка, реформи ледве розпочались у багатьох сферах, таких як служби безпеки, – як нещодавно було детально проаналізовано. Інші були навмисно саботовані, наприклад, судова реформа. Зеленський визначив пріоритетом новий старт судової реформи: у серпні він створив комісію для оцінки всіх аспектів «реформ» Порошенка у цій галузі. Також існує небезпека того, що Зеленський претендуватиме на швидкі результати, а не на справжню інституційну реформу. Наприклад, може бути спокусливо «посадити деяких недоброзичливців у в’язницю», зокрема щодо боротьби з корупцією та судової реформи.
У парламенті Зеленський не має більшості у дві третини для конституційної реформи – хоча, за підтримки деяких незалежних партій, можливо, можна буде прийняти конституційні зміни, які вимагають 300 голосів (373 депутати проголосували за скасування власної недоторканності). У будь-якому випадку, реформа судової влади та служби безпеки залишатиметься в центрі уваги українців, коли вони відстежуватимуть прогрес свого нового президента.
Щодо церковної сфери, Зеленський зустрічався зі Вселенським патріархом, який надав автокефалію новій православній церкві щодо України в грудні 2018 року. Але тоді президент пообіцяв не втручатися у релігійні справи, незважаючи на російський напад на нову церкву.
Економіка
Україна має величезний потенціал для набагато кращих економічних результатів. Зростання ВВП досягло стабільних 3%. Інфляція знаходиться під контролем. Національний банк України має гарну репутацію, а дефіцит торгівлі та боргу впав. Після 2014 року уряд значною мірою проводив реформування державних фінансів та банківської системи. І ринки добре відреагували на подвійні перемоги Зеленського, знизивши витрати України на позики та погашення.
Наразі Україні потрібно залучитись до нової програми з Міжнародним валютним фондом (МВФ). Місія МВФ прибула в Україну у вересні, породжуючи чутки, що нова програма економічної допомоги на 5 мільярдів доларів розпочнеться вже в жовтні. Якщо так, умови цієї програми повинні бути зосереджені не на макроекономіці, а на отриманні результатів щодо ключових реформ. За належної земельної реформи Україна могла б стати світовим лідером у сільському господарстві.
Перемога Зеленського може відображати тривалі революційні настрої в українському суспільстві, але, як зазначає політолог Олексій Гаран, «параметри не змінилися»: Росія все ще є агресором – хоча Зеленський не так пильно ставиться до активних російських заходів проти Сходу України або держави в цілому; Україні все ще потрібен Захід; Захід все ще пропонує нам підтримку; а олігархічна система настільки глибоко вкорінена, що деякий час ще залишатиметься частиною українського ландшафту.
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